Trump pulls ahead of Harris in popular vote polling, edges close in key swing states

Donald Trump has inched ahead of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in RealClearPolling’s average of national polls.

Early Monday, Trump led Harris by a slim margin—48.5% to her 48.4%. While these numbers reflect the popular vote, the final decision rests on the Electoral College, where Trump appears to have an edge. According to FiveThirtyEight simulations, Trump would secure victory in 54 out of 100 scenarios, while Harris would win in 45 out of 100.

Trump’s current position contrasts with the 2020 race, where his then-rival Joe Biden held a comfortable 7.5-point lead at this stage. “President Trump is out-working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community,” a Trump campaign spokesperson said.

Other polling aggregators show Harris slightly ahead; FiveThirtyEight’s national average places her at 48.1% and Trump at 46.7%, while Silver Bulletin gives Harris a 1.2-point lead. However, betting odds currently favor Trump, with oddsmakers estimating a 61.1% chance of a Trump victory compared to Harris’s 37.7%.

As for the critical swing states, Trump has taken a slight lead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump’s gain in Pennsylvania last week was significant, marking the first time since July that he has led in the Keystone State—a crucial battleground that could impact the election’s outcome.