Japan: Political landscape shifts dramatically after historic election loss

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has faced its worst electoral performance in 15 years, triggering speculation about the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the viability of the government.

The results from Sunday’s elections revealed that the LDP, alongside its junior coalition partner Komeito, fell short of the majority needed in the powerful lower house, winning only 215 seats instead of the 233 required.

“The result is that the Japanese political system is indeed entering a new and uncertain period,” remarked Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm. This electoral debacle not only undermined Ishiba’s leadership, which was just solidifying amid public dissatisfaction over a political funding scandal and rising living costs, but also raised questions about the stability of the governing coalition.

With the opposition fragmented across various ideologies—from Communists to far-right factions—forming a cohesive alternative government appears unlikely. Many opposition parties have already ruled out collaborating with the LDP and Komeito, complicating any potential paths forward.

In light of these challenges, analysts suggest the LDP and Komeito may attempt to establish a minority government by seeking support from smaller center-right parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People and the Innovation Party. However, this approach is fraught with risk, as noted by Harris: “Such an arrangement would not be ‘particularly stable’ and would be vulnerable to collapse if it fails to meet opposition demands.”

The future of Prime Minister Ishiba is also precarious. Just weeks after his ascension, the election outcome has weakened both his position and the faction loyal to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as several allies of Abe were implicated in the slush fund scandal and lost their seats. Though Ishiba has expressed determination to form a new government, uncertainty looms, particularly with an upper house election approaching in July.

“It’s going to be a messy situation for months,” stated James DJ Brown, a political science professor at Temple University Japan. “In a way, it’s better for them to wait… then later on, at a moment of their choosing, push him aside and take power.”

Despite these domestic upheavals, Japan’s foreign policy is not expected to undergo significant shifts. Ishiba, a former defense minister, had backed several ambitious proposals, including the creation of an Asian version of NATO and a nuclear-sharing arrangement with the United States. However, with his political capital diminished, analysts predict he will prioritize issues with broader consensus, rather than pursuing controversial initiatives.

“There will be no big change on foreign policy,” said Tetsuo Kotani, a professor of global studies at Meikai University in Chiba. “But obviously because of the outcome of this election, foreign policy will never be a top priority for the new government.” This lack of focus could be concerning, particularly as Japan navigates rising threats from North Korea, growing pressure from China, and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Furthermore, Tomohiko Taniguchi, a former advisor to Abe, emphasized that a weakened Ishiba may struggle to negotiate effectively with a potential Trump administration. “To deal successfully with Mr. Trump, you need to be strong, you need to be well endowed with your political capital. And that’s the thing that the Japanese leader – Ishiba, whoever – cannot show and cannot have.”

As Japan braces for a new era of political uncertainty, all eyes will be on Ishiba and the LDP as they seek to navigate this turbulent landscape.