Conservatives brace for further losses as labour surges in UK local elections

The ruling Conservative Party in Britain is bracing for more losses following a disappointing outcome in local elections, which could spell trouble ahead of the general election expected by January 2025. With nearly 500 council seats lost and control of 12 councils ceded to the opposition, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership is under scrutiny.

The local elections, held across a swathe of England on Thursday, saw significant gains for the Labour Party, which has been out of power since 2010. Among the setbacks for the Conservatives was the loss of a parliamentary seat in Blackpool South and the likely defeats in mayoral races in key cities like London, Liverpool, and Manchester. However, the party retained control in the West Midlands and had a rare success with the re-election of a Tory mayor in Tees Valley, northeast England, albeit with a reduced majority.

Labour leader Keir Starmer has capitalized on the results, using the victory to call for a general election. During a speech in the East Midlands, where Labour won the mayoral race, Starmer urged supporters to “turn the page on decline.” His party’s successes in the local elections, including the win in Blackpool South, are fueling momentum for a larger push against the Conservatives.

Prime Minister Sunak, who must call for a general election by January 28, 2025, acknowledged in a recent editorial that the Conservatives have challenges ahead. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, he admitted that voters are frustrated but insisted that Labour is not gaining ground in key regions necessary for a majority. Despite Sunak’s assurances, polling data and expert analysis indicate that the Conservatives are struggling to recover from previous scandals and the cost-of-living crisis.

Initial tallies from the local elections suggest that Labour would garner 34 percent of the vote in a general election, with the Conservatives trailing by nine points. While these numbers are not a guarantee of Labour’s success in the upcoming general election, they reflect the public’s dissatisfaction with the current government. Sky News projections suggest that Labour could emerge as the largest party in a general election, though it may fall short of an overall majority.

Despite the significant gains for Labour, there were setbacks for the party as well. They lost control of one local authority and experienced some councillor losses to independents, primarily due to their stance on the Israel-Hamas war. Polling expert John Curtice observed that these results could be more a reflection of the public’s desire to defeat the Conservatives than a strong endorsement of Labour, indicating that the party still has work to do to solidify its position ahead of the general election.