India tests K-4 missile, boosting nuclear deterrence against China, Pakistan

India has taken a significant step in its nuclear weapons program with the first operational trial of the K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

Successfully launched from the nuclear-powered submarine INS Arihant, the K-4 missile is seen as a strategic game-changer in the Indian Ocean region.

With a range of approximately 3,500 kilometers, the K-4 far surpasses its predecessor, the K-15 missile, which had a range of only 750 kilometers. The Indian Research Defence Wing (IDRW) reported last month that the test demonstrated India’s growing underwater nuclear capability, marking a major milestone in integrating long-range SLBMs into its strategic forces.

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“The successful trial underscores India’s commitment to maintaining a credible minimum deterrent while adhering to its no-first-use nuclear doctrine,” the IDRW noted. Conducted from submerged platforms, the test validated the missile’s ability to perform in realistic underwater launch scenarios, bolstering India’s nuclear second-strike capabilities.

India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) touts the K-4 as having “near zero circular error probability,” a claim met with skepticism by some analysts. Hans Kristensen, writing for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in September 2024, noted that the missile’s range allows it to target all of Pakistan and most of China from secure positions in the northern Bay of Bengal. “The K-4 mirrors the capabilities of the Agni-III intermediate-range ballistic missile,” Kristensen wrote, though he questioned DRDO’s accuracy claims.

The K-4 test sets the stage for the K-5 missile, which is under development and expected to have a range of over 5,000 kilometers. Once operational, the K-5 will further enhance India’s strategic deterrence, adding another dimension to the growing rivalry with China and Pakistan in the region.