Moldova: European Union Referendum win risks becoming Putin’s Trojan Horse in Europe

Moldova has signaled a tentative step toward European Union (EU) membership, but the specter of Russian interference looms large.

Just over half of voters 50.46 percent supported a constitutional amendment allowing the possibility of joining the EU. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu hailed this outcome as a victory against Moscow, yet concerns persist about ongoing Russian influence in the nation.

Before the vote count concluded, President Sandu called an emergency press conference, alleging that “foreign forces” had attempted to sway the referendum through cash and propaganda. These claims were exacerbated by reports of vote-buying and disinformation campaigns orchestrated by Russian entities, particularly through social media platforms. The Kremlin has denied these allegations and demanded proof of Sandu’s claims.

Romanian MEP Siegfried Mureșan, working on Moldova’s EU accession efforts, called the referendum “a defeat for Russia.” However, experts warn that the Kremlin’s attempts to exert influence will likely continue, both during Moldova’s accession process and beyond. Jeremy Holt, head of Central and Eastern Europe at the geopolitical consultancy S-RM, cautioned that a future pro-Russian government in a fully-fledged EU member state could disrupt EU policy on critical issues such as Russian sanctions and energy imports.

The referendum only paves the way for pursuing EU membership, leaving substantial challenges unresolved. Key among them is the status of Transnistria, a breakaway region with a Russian military presence, and Gagauzia, which enjoys broad autonomy. “Given the increase in Russian active measures throughout Europe, the EU is likely to strongly consider security risks during the future accession process,” Holt noted.

Marta Mucznik, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, emphasized the division in public opinion regarding Moldova’s EU integration. “While Russian interference complicates the process, it will not deter EU leaders from progressing through negotiations,” she stated. However, she warned that the need for unanimous consent among the 27 EU member states means that fears of instability and Russian influence could sway public opinion against Moldova’s accession.

Brussels has responded by establishing an EU Partnership Mission in Moldova to counter disinformation and hybrid warfare tactics. Yet, as Mucznik explained, “ultimately, decisions on EU enlargement hinge on a delicate balance among EU leaders, their public opinions, and Brussels’ priorities.”

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Despite the hopeful outcome of the referendum, Holt cautioned that many Moldovans do not support EU membership. Pro-Russian media, NGOs, and political groups continue to thrive in regions like Transnistria and Gagauzia, complicating efforts to reduce Russian influence. “Building trust in Moldovan state institutions may be a long-term process,” he added.

As Moldova prepares for parliamentary elections next year, experts urge vigilance. Cristina Vanberghen, a visiting fellow at the European University Institute, emphasized that this moment represents a unique opportunity for Moldova to solidify its European aspirations. “The Kremlin views this as its last chance to exert control over the region,” she said.

In response to the referendum, Russian officials have expressed skepticism about the legitimacy of the vote. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the election campaign “unfree,” alleging that opposition candidates were denied the opportunity to campaign effectively. All eyes will now turn to the second round of the presidential election on November 3, where President Sandu will face off against former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is favored by Moscow.

As Moldova navigates its aspirations for EU membership amid external pressures, the path forward remains fraught with challenges that could redefine its future in Europe.