African leaders undertake challenging peace mission in Ukraine amidst escalating conflict

African leaders are set to arrive in Ukraine despite setbacks, including the withdrawal of three presidents and the overshadowing effect of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in a bold endeavor to facilitate peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

The diplomatic team, consisting of four presidents and three representatives, plans to hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv before proceeding to Saint Petersburg to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday.

Expressing the urgency of seeking peace during times of escalated conflict, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa stated, “It is at times of escalated conflict that a search for peace must be equally accelerated.”

This high-profile delegation aims to represent the voice of a continent severely impacted by rising grain prices and the broader consequences on global trade since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesman, Oleg Nikolenko, expressed their readiness to engage with the African leaders, stating, “We are keen to engage with them… to see whether there is a space to come up with joint efforts that would bring peace in Ukraine closer.”

However, this initiative commences amidst unfavorable circumstances. Moscow has intensified its nightly attacks on major Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, while Kyiv has launched a significant counteroffensive to regain Russian-occupied territory. A diplomatic source from Congo commented, “The conditions for peaceful and constructive discussions are no longer there.”

Three leaders—Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Congo-Brazzaville’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso—have withdrawn from the trip. They will be sending their former prime minister, the current prime minister, and the head of their office, respectively, as representatives. Museveni cited his contraction of Covid-19 as the reason for his absence.

The absence of al-Sisi, described as a heavyweight on the African scene, is likely to weaken the scope of the initiative, according to the diplomatic source. Only four members of the original mission—Ramaphosa, Senegal’s Macky Sall, Zambia’s Hakainde Hichilema, and Comoros President Azali Assoumani, who currently heads the African Union—will travel to Kyiv by train from Poland on Friday.

This peace mission coincides with South Africa’s attempt to bolster its international reputation, following concerns expressed by the White House about its relationship with Russia and calls from lawmakers to exclude Pretoria from a trade pact with the United States.

African countries have been divided in their response to the conflict, with some siding with Ukraine, while others have remained neutral or aligned themselves with Moscow. Analysts believe the chances of the African mission securing a comprehensive peace agreement are slim, as both Kyiv and Moscow are convinced of their ability to prevail on the battlefield.

Ukrainian political analyst Anatoliy Oktysiuk expressed skepticism about the African leaders’ ability to mediate, stating that they lack political influence and cannot offer anything substantial for conflict resolution. Nevertheless, analysts suggest that the mediation effort could potentially extract concessions from the Kremlin ahead of a Russia-Africa summit scheduled for next month. One objective could be to secure the continuation of a trade deal enabling Ukrainian grain to reach the global market, which Moscow has threatened to terminate. Prisoner swaps and fertilizer exports are also expected to be on the agenda during the discussions in Moscow.

Describing the peace effort as “theatre,” Professor Jeremy Seekings from the University of Cape Town emphasized Ramaphosa’s need to restore his credibility. He characterized the mission as a long shot but acknowledged its potential significance in this context.