China conducts first ICBM test in decades

China successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean. The launch, conducted at 08:44 local time (04:44 GMT) on Wednesday, marks the first such test in international waters since 1980, signaling a shift in Beijing’s military strategy at a time of growing regional tensions.

China’s Ministry of Defense described the test as “routine” and part of its “annual training,” downplaying its significance. However, experts have expressed surprise, given that this type of missile test has not been carried out in over four decades. “Unless I’m missing something, I think this is essentially the first time this has happened—and been announced as such—in a long time,” Ankit Panda, a nuclear weapons specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted on X (formerly Twitter).

Details about the specific missile type and its trajectory remain unclear. However, Chinese state media emphasized that Beijing had informed “the countries concerned” ahead of the launch, signaling transparency while raising questions about the intent behind the test.

Analysts were quick to point out the geopolitical undertones of this move, especially given heightened tensions between China and its regional neighbors, including Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Japan’s Defense Ministry confirmed that no damage had been reported to its vessels and said it was continuing to monitor Chinese military activities closely. “We will take all possible precautions in our vigilance and monitoring,” Japan’s ministry said.

The timing of the launch appears significant. Drew Thompson, a visiting research fellow at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, wrote, “Timing is everything… [China’s] statement claims the launch does not target any country, but there are high levels of tension between China and Japan, the Philippines, and of course perpetual tension with Taiwan.”

China’s test follows a series of incidents that have ramped up tensions across the region. Last month, Chinese and Philippine ships collided in disputed waters, and Japan recently scrambled fighter jets after accusing a Chinese spy plane of violating its airspace. Additionally, Taiwan’s defense ministry revealed that China has been conducting “intensive” missile drills and detected 23 Chinese military aircraft on “long-range missions” near Taiwan just hours before the ICBM test.

For some observers, the test could also serve as a form of strategic posturing toward the United States. John Ridge, a US-based defense analyst, commented that China’s launch could be “a form of signaling to the United States” amid ongoing tensions over Taiwan and military activities in the South China Sea.

Though China has been expanding its nuclear arsenal, its estimated stockpile of 500 nuclear warheads is still dwarfed by the more than 5,000 warheads held by both the US and Russia. The Pentagon, in a report last year, projected that China would grow its arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by 2030, but the ICBM launch underscores that Beijing remains focused on enhancing its strategic capabilities in an increasingly volatile region.

This latest development comes as China seeks to assert itself more aggressively on the world stage, raising the stakes for regional stability and drawing global scrutiny.