Russia revamps nuclear strategy amid Ukraine's striking attacks on munitions

Russia has responded by refining its nuclear response doctrine to address the growing threat posed by long-range strikes. President Vladimir Putin’s administration has signaled a renewed emphasis on nuclear readiness, following Ukraine’s recent successes that highlight vulnerabilities in Moscow’s conventional military efforts.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s National Security Council, announced on Telegram that Putin “outlined the approaches” to a new edition of the Fundamentals of State Policy on nuclear weapons use. He warned that “a massive launch and crossing of our border with enemy aerospace weapons, including aircraft, missiles and UAVs, can under certain conditions become the basis for the use of nuclear weapons.” Medvedev further asserted that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state supported by nuclear powers would be regarded as a joint attack.

These statements come as Ukraine intensifies its offensive capabilities, utilizing domestic drones to strike critical Russian logistics hubs. Recent attacks on munitions depots in Tikhoretsk and Toropets resulted in significant losses for the Russian military, with Ukrainian military intelligence estimating that 2,000 tonnes of munitions were destroyed in Tikhoretsk alone. Estonian intelligence chief Colonel Ants Kiviselg noted that “thirty thousand tonnes of ammunition exploded – that is 750,000 shells,” emphasizing the long-term impact these losses will have on Russian supply lines.

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The Institute for the Study of War highlighted that the lack of operational security in Russian rear supply depots has made them vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. “This flexibility has granted Russia the ability to optimize large rear staging facilities to marshal massed materiel to Ukraine at scale,” they noted.

The ongoing conflict is underscored by escalating tensions over nuclear capabilities. While Ukraine remains constrained by Western-imposed restrictions on deep strikes into Russia, the recent legislative moves in the European Parliament to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons have heightened concerns in Moscow. Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin warned that such actions could pave the way for a “nuclear world war.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concerns that Russia’s nuclear strategy may not involve traditional nuclear weapons but could target Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure. At the 79th UN General Assembly, he stated, “Putin does seem to be planning attacks on our nuclear power plants and their infrastructure, aiming to disconnect the plants from the power grid.”

The conflict also reflects a burgeoning arms race in drone technology, with Ukraine committing to produce millions of smaller drones. Defense Minister Rustem Umyerov stated, “Our capacity is several million drones, we are able to do it,” emphasizing the country’s commitment to maintaining a technological edge.

As both sides bolster their military capabilities, the potential for escalation remains high, with geopolitical stakes rising amidst a backdrop of nuclear threats and devastating conventional warfare.